* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972015 08/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 43 45 43 35 27 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 43 45 43 35 27 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 34 35 34 34 33 32 30 28 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 30 30 28 32 29 39 40 51 54 55 59 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 207 209 222 221 224 235 251 287 292 300 306 317 322 SST (C) 26.4 25.1 23.3 21.5 19.9 19.0 18.1 18.4 20.0 22.2 24.3 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 105 93 84 78 76 73 74 79 87 99 104 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 88 80 74 70 68 67 67 70 76 84 87 87 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 4 5 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 56 56 59 60 59 58 53 43 38 37 37 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 7 8 6 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 50 36 46 46 45 34 20 8 -17 -28 -15 -12 -21 200 MB DIV 49 84 17 44 67 12 0 -10 -41 -52 -38 -30 -18 700-850 TADV 6 14 14 13 11 -4 -7 12 -3 -9 0 0 8 LAND (KM) 467 375 285 218 185 139 219 356 423 532 682 838 1014 LAT (DEG N) 39.3 40.2 41.0 41.9 42.7 43.8 44.1 43.7 42.9 42.0 41.1 40.3 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 65.0 64.7 64.0 63.4 61.4 58.9 56.5 54.1 51.8 49.6 47.6 45.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 15 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 8. 1. -7. -15. -22. -29. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 13. 5. -3. -12. -22. -30. -38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972015 INVEST 08/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972015 INVEST 08/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972015 INVEST 08/23/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)