* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 08/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 62 64 66 65 65 65 65 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 62 64 66 65 65 65 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 40 44 52 59 64 67 68 67 69 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 7 5 6 10 19 23 24 16 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 4 3 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 24 24 25 10 4 283 274 269 287 293 303 303 314 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 126 125 125 126 132 138 142 145 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 129 126 125 124 123 127 131 135 138 139 141 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 62 59 61 59 59 57 56 55 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 14 12 12 10 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 102 97 85 70 52 45 13 -17 -29 -32 -42 -42 -60 200 MB DIV -18 2 28 16 23 3 25 0 -5 -4 1 13 10 700-850 TADV -13 -15 -12 -9 -9 -2 -8 0 -6 -4 -6 -6 -7 LAND (KM) 1923 1790 1670 1574 1492 1347 1301 1130 1009 791 550 314 267 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.5 18.3 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 36.7 38.4 40.2 41.9 43.7 47.1 50.2 53.1 55.7 58.2 60.6 63.3 65.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 12 12 13 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 4 7 6 16 15 17 27 54 41 54 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 32. 34. 36. 35. 35. 35. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 08/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST 08/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 08/23/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)