* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 51 60 69 72 66 53 53 56 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 44 51 60 69 72 66 53 53 56 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 38 38 41 45 50 54 51 39 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 16 17 23 24 16 18 21 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 9 10 4 -5 -8 0 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 283 275 273 277 235 216 236 327 305 217 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.8 25.5 23.1 17.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 151 145 138 133 121 97 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -52.7 -51.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 4 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 59 60 65 66 55 49 50 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 17 16 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -26 -30 -33 -12 61 89 92 82 78 111 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 19 29 19 47 54 63 22 24 39 26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 8 9 13 23 13 29 14 35 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2046 2008 1974 1909 1850 1743 1707 1877 2205 2289 1752 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.9 24.7 26.8 29.1 31.7 34.5 37.7 41.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.6 179.3 179.0 178.4 177.7 176.2 174.9 175.3 177.3 180.6 184.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 13 12 14 19 22 24 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 30 24 19 20 12 7 10 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 16. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -11. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 11. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 25. 34. 37. 31. 18. 18. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##