* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/23/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 52 56 59 61 63 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 47 52 56 59 61 63 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 37 43 48 52 56 61 65 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 10 10 10 8 8 4 6 6 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -2 -6 -8 -8 -7 -4 -4 -6 -6 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 45 64 73 73 85 133 139 166 156 167 178 174 156 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 152 153 154 155 153 151 150 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 65 65 65 65 65 63 68 69 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 48 50 46 47 57 63 77 76 82 76 76 71 200 MB DIV 44 42 54 59 53 76 71 72 58 65 36 58 64 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2250 2285 2316 2344 2373 2432 2408 2260 2090 1912 1716 1532 1387 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 129.2 129.7 130.2 130.7 131.1 132.1 133.3 134.8 136.5 138.3 140.2 141.9 143.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 5 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 23 22 21 21 20 18 22 19 11 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/23/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/23/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##