* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 52 60 64 66 69 71 73 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 52 60 64 66 69 71 73 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 34 36 40 45 51 59 67 71 74 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 15 13 10 3 5 10 14 9 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -7 -5 -7 -6 -3 -3 -1 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 360 7 13 15 17 28 42 292 257 255 244 265 290 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 146 146 145 146 147 147 146 144 145 145 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 66 64 64 62 61 61 64 64 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 19 20 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 52 42 27 17 9 -11 -32 -40 -35 -19 -13 13 25 200 MB DIV 55 55 46 41 40 45 28 5 17 23 29 5 13 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1062 1072 1086 1066 1046 996 947 888 825 782 756 782 852 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 165.8 166.4 166.9 167.0 167.2 167.3 167.2 167.1 166.9 166.8 166.7 167.1 167.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 53 48 40 36 36 43 48 52 47 40 35 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 398 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 30. 34. 36. 39. 41. 43. 41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##