* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 62 70 78 84 81 71 63 61 62 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 62 70 78 84 81 71 63 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 55 59 64 71 75 77 71 58 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 13 16 20 24 18 5 10 17 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 6 6 5 0 -5 -1 -2 1 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 260 261 265 247 222 201 310 310 238 185 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.1 25.0 19.6 14.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 150 148 141 135 127 117 65 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -52.6 -51.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 61 63 67 61 50 52 42 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 12 13 16 18 18 14 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -28 -30 -14 31 81 89 82 84 71 136 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 26 20 44 95 47 42 30 63 27 48 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 5 6 17 32 30 28 22 8 46 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2017 1969 1926 1848 1777 1697 1793 2054 2436 2032 1487 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.2 24.1 25.0 25.8 28.0 30.5 33.2 36.0 39.5 43.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.4 179.0 178.5 177.7 176.8 175.3 175.1 176.4 179.1 182.4 185.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 16 20 23 24 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 23 18 21 16 13 2 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 9. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 14. 13. 7. 8. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 3. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 17. 25. 33. 39. 36. 26. 18. 17. 17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##