* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 43 49 50 52 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 43 49 50 52 53 53 54 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 35 41 46 49 50 51 51 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 9 11 11 10 12 14 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -7 -8 -8 -10 -5 -4 -6 -5 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 57 63 63 79 129 167 173 213 216 225 233 237 226 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 151 151 152 151 147 142 138 138 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 62 64 61 59 55 55 55 56 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 46 50 54 57 70 73 73 73 60 68 58 200 MB DIV 40 45 52 56 67 55 39 27 26 17 24 25 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 2250 2262 2269 2277 2286 2322 2381 2203 1995 1763 1525 1291 1079 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 129.2 129.5 129.9 130.3 130.7 131.7 133.1 134.7 136.6 138.7 140.8 142.9 144.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 24 22 21 20 22 20 34 24 11 13 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 24. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/24/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##