* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 37 40 43 45 48 50 52 52 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 37 40 43 45 48 50 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 33 33 33 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 14 18 23 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 255 242 233 239 253 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 143 145 145 143 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 139 140 142 141 139 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 38 38 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 8 7 12 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 21 18 -7 -15 -18 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -3 -5 -7 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 528 400 276 178 124 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.1 61.4 62.7 64.0 65.3 67.9 70.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 13 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 20 37 35 40 61 39 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/24/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)