* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982015 08/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 61 68 70 71 71 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 46 55 61 68 70 71 71 71 71 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 36 39 47 56 67 75 79 79 78 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 7 5 9 6 16 16 20 22 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 1 0 -4 0 -6 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 45 37 40 49 38 13 335 332 306 308 302 310 302 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 127 128 128 129 133 140 142 145 146 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 130 130 128 128 132 138 139 140 140 138 137 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 63 64 62 62 62 62 59 61 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 15 15 15 13 13 11 10 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 95 80 67 64 64 35 5 -6 -14 -23 -18 -12 -21 200 MB DIV 20 17 23 5 8 23 9 0 8 8 23 0 13 700-850 TADV -11 -12 -13 -8 -2 -13 -5 -8 -7 -9 -7 -5 1 LAND (KM) 1570 1437 1320 1222 1150 1055 854 672 592 302 33 84 24 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.1 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 40.7 42.7 44.7 46.5 48.3 51.6 54.6 57.5 60.4 63.0 65.4 67.7 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 12 27 26 14 22 43 44 32 23 63 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 31. 38. 40. 41. 41. 41. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982015 INVEST 08/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982015 INVEST 08/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982015 INVEST 08/24/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)