* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 52 55 56 56 57 61 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 46 52 55 56 56 57 61 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 45 49 52 57 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 15 13 9 2 7 11 19 16 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -6 -6 -4 -6 -6 -3 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 16 21 20 20 23 26 358 315 283 292 291 286 305 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 145 145 147 146 145 145 146 147 145 144 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 67 66 64 64 62 64 65 67 69 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 39 25 16 5 -7 -30 -37 -47 -27 -19 -2 23 28 200 MB DIV 58 45 32 28 27 29 -3 -1 22 20 23 30 20 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1083 1090 1100 1090 1081 1026 990 968 949 929 922 933 965 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.6 20.2 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 166.5 167.0 167.6 167.8 167.9 167.9 168.1 168.1 168.0 168.0 168.3 168.6 169.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 3 4 5 3 2 1 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 47 38 36 37 41 51 59 57 54 50 41 33 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 386 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 22. 25. 26. 26. 27. 31. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##