* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 71 80 83 82 72 57 46 42 40 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 66 71 80 83 82 72 57 46 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 50 57 64 70 75 78 75 67 57 42 31 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 18 20 22 18 15 3 17 24 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 5 4 -2 -7 0 3 9 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 254 259 241 222 211 214 267 232 179 168 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.2 26.5 25.3 22.8 16.5 11.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 147 143 137 130 119 94 66 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -51.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 66 67 66 55 57 50 47 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 15 18 19 17 12 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -24 0 38 63 80 75 66 81 125 156 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 34 55 84 95 50 47 71 61 42 87 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 4 7 14 12 32 24 13 2 -14 10 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1953 1882 1818 1753 1697 1726 1958 2290 2249 1692 1066 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.4 25.3 26.3 27.2 29.7 32.4 35.0 37.8 41.8 46.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.8 178.1 177.3 176.5 175.6 174.8 175.8 178.0 181.2 185.0 189.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 15 17 22 27 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 19 14 14 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -9. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 14. 12. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 30. 33. 32. 22. 7. -4. -8. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##