* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 50 53 57 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 44 50 53 57 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 43 47 50 52 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 14 12 8 10 3 8 13 17 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -7 -7 -9 -6 -6 -3 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 73 67 86 126 148 156 169 195 178 209 205 204 196 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 152 152 153 154 153 151 147 144 144 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 66 63 63 64 64 61 60 58 62 61 64 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 49 41 37 43 53 51 62 67 72 64 66 66 78 200 MB DIV 48 48 49 62 65 49 44 37 36 33 42 59 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 2 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 2317 2330 2343 2364 2386 2454 2329 2159 1951 1716 1457 1217 989 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.5 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.5 130.8 131.2 131.6 132.6 134.0 135.6 137.5 139.6 141.9 144.1 146.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 6 7 8 10 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 20 21 21 18 19 22 14 14 16 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 25. 28. 32. 32. 33. 34. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/24/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##