* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 34 37 40 44 48 50 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 34 37 40 44 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 21 20 20 19 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 17 21 20 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 234 224 231 243 230 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 145 144 143 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 142 141 140 141 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 37 37 38 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 16 11 10 4 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 25 6 -7 -26 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -7 -7 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 519 391 268 174 133 130 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.2 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.8 64.1 65.4 66.7 69.5 72.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 13 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 35 35 40 54 49 57 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 23. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/24/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/24/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)