* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 52 58 60 61 62 64 66 65 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 52 58 60 61 62 64 66 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 48 53 56 60 64 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 10 9 4 5 12 18 16 15 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -7 -4 -4 -8 -1 -4 -1 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 24 20 20 25 21 83 263 271 280 298 295 293 289 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 151 151 151 151 150 149 149 148 147 146 146 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 64 62 61 60 59 61 61 67 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 13 15 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 23 12 3 -10 -23 -38 -43 -46 -20 -14 4 23 28 200 MB DIV 43 35 26 20 18 20 0 25 25 40 25 26 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1085 1090 1099 1086 1076 1039 1012 1016 1055 1086 1104 1159 1229 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.0 18.0 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.6 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 167.4 167.8 168.2 168.4 168.6 168.8 168.9 169.1 169.6 170.0 170.3 170.9 171.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 40 49 57 58 50 47 46 46 43 42 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 28. 30. 31. 32. 34. 36. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##