* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/24/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 68 74 78 81 74 52 78 64 59 57 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 68 74 78 81 74 52 78 64 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 69 72 72 67 56 47 43 30 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 21 25 22 16 6 5 21 19 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 6 0 0 -6 0 -1 8 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 249 234 222 211 226 271 257 129 125 192 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.6 26.8 25.5 22.1 15.7 11.2 10.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 145 141 134 122 88 66 67 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -51.5 -50.9 -52.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 8 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 66 66 66 57 53 49 53 53 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 14 14 17 17 18 14 7 33 28 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 6 45 63 76 53 52 74 150 203 115 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 61 86 65 40 31 35 46 66 77 47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 11 11 20 34 34 25 14 -21 -26 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1879 1803 1737 1696 1671 1817 2195 2233 1625 1020 478 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.6 26.6 27.9 29.1 31.9 34.7 38.2 42.5 47.5 53.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.0 177.1 176.2 175.4 174.5 174.4 177.0 180.8 185.1 188.7 191.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 14 15 21 25 27 28 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 18 11 12 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -2. -7. -11. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -7. -13. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 7. -3. 34. 28. 28. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 19. 23. 26. 19. -3. 23. 9. 4. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##