* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 67 68 73 72 62 43 41 40 40 44 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 67 68 73 72 62 43 41 40 40 44 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 63 64 62 55 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 18 23 20 18 19 11 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 3 1 -1 -7 -2 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 235 226 217 224 233 281 177 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.4 24.8 18.5 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 143 137 131 116 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 64 64 67 63 53 54 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 15 19 17 18 17 14 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 44 63 75 71 45 39 75 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 86 57 38 40 24 56 39 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 14 24 38 38 33 21 42 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1767 1705 1657 1653 1665 1933 2424 1891 1220 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.3 27.4 28.7 30.0 33.0 36.4 40.9 46.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.8 176.0 175.1 174.5 173.9 175.0 178.6 182.7 186.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 19 25 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 14 12 13 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 12 CX,CY: 8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -8. -13. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. 1. 6. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 12. 13. 18. 17. 7. -12. -14. -15. -15. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##