* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 36 38 44 50 54 57 57 56 56 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 36 38 44 50 54 57 57 56 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 42 45 48 52 55 54 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 10 8 4 2 4 5 7 8 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -6 -3 -2 -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 97 126 143 144 145 134 69 139 227 237 231 240 260 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 150 150 150 150 148 143 141 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 62 63 65 64 64 64 69 72 73 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 50 44 49 53 49 47 40 32 27 40 28 200 MB DIV 52 55 58 51 45 64 23 32 42 38 55 50 32 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 7 LAND (KM) 2303 2336 2370 2416 2462 2390 2260 2044 1780 1581 1479 1318 1126 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 8 11 10 7 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 18 20 20 19 16 20 16 14 14 12 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 27. 26. 26. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/24/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##