* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 08/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 29 32 35 37 37 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 29 32 35 37 37 37 37 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 11 14 13 16 18 25 24 21 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -5 -2 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 249 295 294 293 305 306 302 300 327 332 339 317 318 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 164 165 166 164 163 161 160 155 152 150 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 74 75 75 73 70 69 68 66 62 59 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 9 8 0 -6 -8 -19 -16 -5 -3 6 3 200 MB DIV 39 48 53 45 33 49 44 34 22 19 18 9 10 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -10 -8 -4 -2 -1 3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 768 790 814 839 864 944 1071 1150 1261 1404 1577 1770 1966 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 12.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 102.2 103.6 105.2 106.7 109.6 112.5 115.4 118.4 121.3 124.1 126.9 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 44 37 38 45 46 38 48 37 28 36 35 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 08/24/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 08/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##