* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 26 28 33 37 40 44 46 47 48 51 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 26 28 33 37 40 44 46 47 48 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 23 22 23 24 26 28 30 31 32 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 8 2 9 14 22 23 19 18 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -6 -4 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 7 3 1 12 348 264 272 261 270 258 267 260 266 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 149 147 147 148 147 147 147 147 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 62 60 61 61 62 63 68 68 71 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 15 16 18 20 19 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -21 -32 -37 -39 -33 -15 2 28 46 53 67 200 MB DIV 31 13 8 5 8 14 14 36 32 29 35 11 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 931 916 903 887 872 860 869 892 926 982 1048 1128 1217 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 167.1 167.3 167.4 167.5 167.5 167.6 167.8 168.1 168.5 169.1 169.8 170.6 171.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 46 45 44 43 42 41 39 37 37 41 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##