* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 74 75 76 66 54 41 39 39 39 43 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 74 75 76 66 54 41 39 39 39 43 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 73 74 72 64 52 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 24 22 18 14 7 8 18 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 -1 -1 0 0 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 227 223 221 211 274 269 183 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.9 25.5 21.4 15.0 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 141 138 135 123 81 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 6 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 64 58 53 47 53 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 18 18 18 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 74 81 80 70 55 23 105 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 68 57 41 29 26 46 85 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 27 35 39 47 25 6 82 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1637 1613 1604 1675 1756 2142 2202 1603 1033 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.4 28.6 30.0 31.3 34.7 38.9 43.3 47.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 175.3 174.7 174.0 174.0 174.1 176.3 180.2 184.2 188.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 16 23 26 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 14 15 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -11. -18. -19. -20. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. -1. -7. -12. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -4. 1. 7. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 1. -11. -24. -26. -26. -26. -22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/25/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##