* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122015 08/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 55 56 54 54 52 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 55 56 54 54 52 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 45 48 51 52 50 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 9 7 1 5 2 3 6 11 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -6 -5 -1 -2 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 116 135 140 137 139 95 90 150 218 254 252 263 281 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 150 150 149 149 146 142 142 139 136 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 63 63 63 65 66 65 67 69 69 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 37 45 46 41 35 29 14 6 5 4 0 200 MB DIV 46 48 45 41 57 26 36 29 33 24 32 23 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 6 LAND (KM) 2310 2359 2409 2451 2477 2359 2170 1955 1720 1518 1321 1145 976 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 7 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 20 21 21 17 18 21 17 14 12 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 25. 26. 24. 24. 22. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##