* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952015 08/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 55 55 54 53 51 49 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 55 55 54 53 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 48 50 51 49 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 9 7 1 5 2 3 7 11 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -5 -1 -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 118 136 141 139 139 111 93 149 224 250 252 263 280 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 151 150 150 149 149 145 142 141 138 136 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 62 63 62 64 65 65 67 68 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 38 45 47 41 35 29 13 5 4 2 0 200 MB DIV 46 46 44 41 56 26 35 28 33 23 32 23 42 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 6 LAND (KM) 2302 2351 2401 2443 2473 2355 2166 1951 1716 1514 1318 1141 974 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 5 7 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 20 21 17 18 21 18 14 12 17 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 25. 25. 24. 23. 21. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 08/25/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 08/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##