* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 46 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 46 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 49 53 55 59 63 67 72 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 11 13 15 15 14 16 15 19 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 2 3 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 8 338 333 295 292 303 291 299 295 310 283 301 302 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 134 137 143 144 145 146 148 152 154 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 132 132 135 141 140 139 139 141 142 139 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 60 61 57 55 54 55 56 57 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 64 48 28 13 -1 -11 -19 -28 -33 -27 -46 -56 -72 200 MB DIV 30 10 3 -1 3 30 -2 3 21 13 8 -1 26 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -22 -18 -8 -12 -10 -8 -7 -5 -6 -7 -2 LAND (KM) 1136 1102 1090 978 883 727 486 224 56 122 133 200 225 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 21.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 50.4 52.1 53.6 55.0 58.3 61.2 63.6 65.9 68.3 71.0 72.7 73.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 15 13 12 12 13 11 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 14 17 22 28 50 38 49 64 69 55 53 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED