* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 71 73 70 55 41 27 22 20 19 21 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 71 73 70 55 41 27 22 20 19 21 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 70 70 68 58 42 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 22 14 12 14 15 26 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 -1 -4 -3 6 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 224 224 218 231 296 232 179 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.3 24.4 17.7 12.0 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 136 134 130 112 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 62 57 51 47 48 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 18 18 19 17 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 73 78 69 57 17 14 135 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 47 31 37 12 48 51 65 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 31 40 48 31 15 31 90 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1595 1615 1654 1791 1931 2436 1829 1263 793 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 29.0 30.4 31.8 33.2 36.9 41.8 46.1 49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.4 174.0 173.5 174.2 174.8 178.3 182.4 186.2 189.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 15 19 26 27 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 10 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 15 CX,CY: 8/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -8. -16. -23. -24. -25. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. -1. -4. -13. -20. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -3. 1. 7. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 5. -10. -24. -38. -43. -45. -46. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/25/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##