* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122015 08/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 41 47 51 53 53 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 41 47 51 53 53 52 52 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 41 44 45 44 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 7 3 2 3 3 6 9 13 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -3 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 -5 -4 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 136 149 155 165 183 77 137 174 218 255 259 272 271 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 151 150 150 150 147 142 140 137 135 133 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 58 59 59 59 58 59 61 61 63 60 62 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 49 52 53 52 44 24 17 10 19 4 -3 200 MB DIV 60 55 54 63 52 38 40 25 32 9 8 -4 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 5 LAND (KM) 2354 2393 2431 2457 2398 2238 2022 1784 1545 1324 1111 930 778 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 12.9 13.1 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 131.4 131.8 132.2 132.8 133.4 134.9 136.8 138.8 140.8 142.7 144.6 146.2 147.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 20 18 16 21 19 14 12 19 18 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 23. 22. 22. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##