* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 08/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 39 44 47 50 50 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 39 44 47 50 50 51 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 37 39 42 44 48 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 8 8 9 12 16 15 16 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -5 -3 -1 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 353 306 310 293 295 301 287 307 314 330 318 317 290 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 164 165 164 162 162 164 161 157 159 158 154 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 73 72 71 71 70 67 67 65 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 9 1 1 1 -11 -14 -4 7 25 31 44 200 MB DIV 55 37 30 30 57 51 59 9 29 32 45 44 45 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 827 867 900 937 991 1136 1281 1402 1595 1788 1988 2221 2439 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.7 12.4 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.3 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.3 104.0 105.7 107.3 108.8 112.0 115.0 118.1 121.1 124.1 126.9 129.7 132.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 17 16 15 16 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 37 39 49 44 40 23 33 29 33 24 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 22. 25. 25. 26. 28. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 08/25/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 08/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##