* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 42 42 42 43 45 46 47 51 53 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 42 42 42 43 45 46 47 51 53 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 42 44 45 46 48 51 54 58 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 16 21 17 21 16 22 19 22 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 -1 -2 0 -6 2 -4 -1 -1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 319 296 294 298 293 306 296 313 302 312 297 316 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.7 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 133 137 140 143 145 146 148 151 156 164 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 132 136 139 140 141 140 141 143 145 150 156 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 60 59 55 57 56 58 58 60 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 25 8 -5 -18 -26 -39 -43 -48 -64 -89 -92 -92 200 MB DIV 15 11 6 7 6 11 -9 5 13 18 0 0 25 700-850 TADV -12 -18 -19 -11 -7 -14 -8 -15 -3 -6 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1113 1101 1004 903 826 673 359 107 155 158 263 322 381 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.2 51.7 53.2 54.7 56.2 59.4 62.3 64.9 67.2 69.6 72.0 74.0 75.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 13 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 16 24 26 50 51 57 76 74 34 73 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 11. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)