* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 33 36 41 43 46 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 33 36 41 43 46 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 0 6 8 14 20 20 18 18 21 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -6 -2 -2 -4 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 10 14 309 252 267 261 270 289 286 285 279 277 269 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 148 149 149 150 150 149 150 150 151 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 58 58 58 60 61 66 69 71 72 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 15 16 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -40 -38 -37 -42 -34 -15 -6 19 38 45 41 37 200 MB DIV 15 -6 -8 -13 -9 15 8 18 23 25 16 46 31 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 878 863 848 858 868 907 966 1045 1145 1215 1276 1377 1499 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 167.3 167.3 167.3 167.5 167.6 168.0 168.6 169.4 170.4 171.1 171.7 172.7 173.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 1 2 3 4 4 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 47 47 47 48 46 46 49 51 51 46 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 11. 16. 18. 21. 24. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##