* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122015 08/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 41 46 51 53 53 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 41 46 51 53 53 52 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 35 37 41 44 44 42 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 7 4 4 2 2 4 9 15 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 146 156 161 167 157 97 121 129 224 248 273 279 273 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 150 149 149 148 144 141 140 137 134 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 57 59 61 62 65 66 65 66 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 57 59 59 53 41 31 18 14 11 0 -17 200 MB DIV 52 53 71 67 40 30 35 39 10 16 5 -1 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 2 3 8 LAND (KM) 2408 2462 2418 2352 2286 2099 1854 1631 1416 1209 1023 845 683 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.3 14.1 14.9 15.8 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 132.1 132.7 133.2 133.9 134.5 136.2 138.3 140.2 142.0 143.8 145.4 146.9 148.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 27 23 20 19 17 13 12 19 24 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 11. 16. 21. 23. 23. 22. 21. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##