* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 08/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 39 43 46 49 50 53 58 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 39 43 46 49 50 53 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 40 42 45 50 57 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 4 9 7 13 12 11 7 2 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 153 274 304 299 284 297 295 303 327 333 15 127 155 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 164 163 162 162 164 163 161 160 160 158 157 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 72 71 71 70 69 68 68 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 5 5 3 -7 -15 -8 5 21 44 61 76 200 MB DIV 50 42 46 62 48 57 38 41 43 59 74 79 84 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 939 964 1011 1090 1167 1352 1473 1652 1855 2065 2286 2502 2431 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.8 11.4 11.8 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.8 11.5 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 106.4 108.0 109.7 111.3 114.5 117.6 120.6 123.6 126.5 129.1 131.5 133.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 35 41 43 54 30 40 33 31 26 26 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 29. 33. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 08/25/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 08/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##