* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 39 40 40 42 44 49 53 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 36 39 40 40 42 44 49 53 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 33 34 34 35 37 39 41 44 48 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 16 19 17 18 15 19 22 23 19 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -6 -1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 319 288 287 293 296 288 306 304 301 297 306 322 335 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.6 30.1 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 137 140 143 144 147 148 150 156 162 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 136 138 141 141 141 142 143 147 149 152 151 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 55 56 56 57 58 59 62 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 32 14 -2 -18 -24 -28 -33 -44 -52 -78 -90 -93 -75 200 MB DIV 10 4 0 8 18 4 9 5 6 12 4 31 29 700-850 TADV -16 -15 -10 -9 -12 -12 -11 -7 -11 -6 -6 0 5 LAND (KM) 1091 973 860 790 751 482 190 77 144 222 279 322 369 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.2 19.2 20.6 21.8 22.9 23.9 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.9 53.5 55.1 56.6 58.0 61.2 63.9 66.3 68.9 71.4 73.7 75.2 76.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 24 29 49 39 52 71 81 62 66 76 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 14. 18. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)