* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 33 37 39 42 43 45 49 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 33 37 39 42 43 45 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 31 32 32 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 4 7 8 14 21 21 22 22 20 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -4 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 30 86 220 281 283 265 281 298 291 283 293 278 279 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 147 146 148 149 150 150 151 152 151 151 152 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 56 56 58 60 65 70 72 70 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 12 14 14 14 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -31 -29 -37 -41 -27 -8 7 25 39 22 27 21 200 MB DIV 5 7 1 -6 -3 4 3 21 14 30 19 29 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 863 868 872 872 872 910 986 1049 1107 1209 1357 1500 1651 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.5 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 167.2 167.3 167.4 167.4 167.4 167.8 168.5 169.1 169.7 170.7 172.2 173.6 175.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 0 1 3 3 3 4 6 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 47 47 47 48 52 53 53 51 48 45 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 14. 17. 18. 20. 24. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##