* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 54 53 49 39 37 35 33 33 34 35 40 V (KT) LAND 60 56 54 53 49 39 37 35 33 33 34 35 40 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 54 51 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 17 9 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -3 -3 -2 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 228 244 276 300 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.5 24.8 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 131 123 116 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 55 50 49 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 18 18 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 64 49 53 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 25 21 41 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 47 52 38 26 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1609 1751 1895 2146 2395 1935 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.6 33.0 34.7 36.4 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.1 173.8 174.5 176.4 178.2 182.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 19 23 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 16 CX,CY: 0/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. 1. 6. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -11. -21. -23. -25. -27. -27. -26. -25. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##