* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 49 52 53 54 53 51 49 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 49 52 53 54 53 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 40 41 43 45 47 48 47 46 43 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 5 3 5 3 6 5 8 11 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -6 -5 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 151 167 181 182 147 132 110 165 232 230 246 245 252 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 149 149 148 147 142 141 138 137 134 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 57 58 63 62 67 67 69 67 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 51 57 60 62 60 56 40 35 19 26 15 3 -16 200 MB DIV 57 65 63 37 30 45 38 32 14 13 0 -20 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 -2 0 0 3 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 2454 2407 2343 2273 2204 2006 1758 1542 1355 1158 963 781 609 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.6 14.5 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.3 133.9 134.5 135.2 137.0 139.1 140.9 142.5 144.2 145.9 147.5 149.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 10 11 9 9 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 23 19 18 20 16 13 12 22 22 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. 16. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##