* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 08/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 38 44 50 58 66 78 87 93 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 38 44 50 58 66 78 87 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 40 45 53 69 90 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 4 4 6 10 7 8 4 6 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -6 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 145 25 291 275 307 257 277 296 335 41 75 98 89 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 162 162 162 164 162 159 160 159 156 152 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 73 71 72 70 69 69 67 64 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 10 11 14 16 20 25 28 850 MB ENV VOR 11 7 2 -1 -1 -9 -12 0 19 31 46 71 82 200 MB DIV 41 44 52 54 61 57 30 43 50 59 67 92 124 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 978 1024 1086 1152 1230 1379 1509 1679 1862 2049 2252 2434 2358 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.7 109.3 110.9 112.5 115.6 118.5 121.3 124.2 126.8 129.3 131.6 134.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 32 39 42 50 30 32 37 31 33 27 25 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -11. -8. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 19. 25. 29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 13. 19. 25. 33. 41. 53. 62. 68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 08/25/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 08/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##