* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 33 35 36 38 39 40 45 50 57 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 33 35 36 38 39 40 45 50 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 32 33 33 34 36 37 40 45 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 19 17 16 19 17 23 20 18 16 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -2 0 2 -3 0 -5 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 289 281 293 297 290 295 289 298 281 293 291 320 285 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.9 30.5 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 138 142 143 143 145 147 148 153 157 168 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 141 142 140 142 143 142 144 145 155 167 161 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 54 52 54 55 57 56 59 61 61 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 11 9 8 6 5 6 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -2 -14 -20 -21 -35 -34 -37 -56 -89 -93 -100 -80 200 MB DIV -1 -8 2 16 13 -1 1 13 19 5 8 4 26 700-850 TADV -19 -10 -8 -13 -16 -8 -13 -7 -9 -5 -8 -4 0 LAND (KM) 974 856 763 714 607 300 24 76 133 242 228 263 119 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.8 18.7 19.7 21.0 22.1 23.0 24.3 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 53.6 55.3 56.9 58.5 60.1 62.9 65.9 68.6 71.0 73.1 75.1 77.1 79.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 24 32 54 42 49 46 74 61 57 47 72 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 15. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED