* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 43 48 52 55 56 56 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 43 48 52 55 56 56 56 57 59 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 37 39 43 45 47 48 49 50 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 16 15 15 15 14 15 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 115 203 251 267 264 262 287 293 305 293 285 277 275 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 148 149 151 152 151 151 150 150 151 150 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 54 54 57 61 64 67 68 70 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 13 14 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -32 -38 -44 -43 -25 -4 7 17 5 -2 -3 6 200 MB DIV 13 9 -2 -10 -2 2 12 19 31 9 20 13 34 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 868 870 872 889 905 1001 1125 1240 1336 1430 1507 1594 1696 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.2 17.8 17.6 17.6 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 167.3 167.4 167.4 167.5 167.7 168.5 169.6 170.7 171.7 172.7 173.6 174.6 175.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 0 1 3 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 47 47 48 48 54 59 54 48 48 46 37 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 7. 7. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##