* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 49 51 58 63 68 72 76 77 77 75 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 49 51 58 63 68 72 76 77 77 75 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 50 53 60 66 70 74 76 76 75 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 7 6 12 8 9 7 6 5 8 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -3 -6 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 145 157 143 93 93 116 101 136 139 187 205 227 220 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 149 149 147 146 145 143 140 138 138 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 61 64 66 68 69 69 67 64 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 56 63 67 66 61 55 44 42 47 48 43 29 22 200 MB DIV 88 85 60 43 54 46 48 34 18 22 1 -1 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 1 2 4 4 5 LAND (KM) 2438 2360 2282 2190 2098 1897 1688 1488 1304 1106 898 692 486 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.9 13.8 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.0 134.8 135.7 136.6 138.4 140.1 141.8 143.4 145.1 146.9 148.7 150.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 27 22 22 26 18 12 14 20 21 22 32 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 37. 37. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##