* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 08/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 53 59 67 72 77 85 90 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 53 59 67 72 77 85 90 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 56 66 78 92 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 7 5 3 9 11 12 9 8 6 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 -3 -5 -3 0 -1 -1 -4 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 311 312 304 327 300 286 294 321 333 313 245 247 290 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 162 162 161 162 160 156 155 154 154 150 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 72 73 74 71 70 68 65 60 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 11 13 15 18 21 25 30 34 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -3 -8 -12 -13 -16 -10 4 33 41 46 62 72 200 MB DIV 50 51 41 53 72 51 40 32 57 42 76 64 83 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1002 1039 1086 1127 1187 1289 1372 1507 1634 1802 1992 2208 2128 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 108.5 109.9 111.3 112.7 115.4 117.9 120.4 123.0 125.7 128.6 131.7 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 14 15 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 30 37 43 42 58 32 22 28 38 20 24 21 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 24. 31. 36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 28. 34. 42. 47. 52. 60. 65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 08/26/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 08/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##