* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 37 37 37 39 42 47 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 37 37 37 37 39 42 47 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 37 39 43 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 15 16 20 20 25 25 25 17 18 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 3 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 272 284 291 279 284 299 298 295 291 312 322 324 296 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.5 30.1 30.6 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 142 143 144 147 147 149 154 160 172 172 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 139 141 142 143 143 141 142 143 148 159 168 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 52 52 53 55 54 57 60 61 64 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 6 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -11 -15 -19 -25 -33 -39 -52 -73 -91 -98 -81 -74 200 MB DIV -9 6 20 20 16 5 12 6 5 0 11 13 22 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -10 -16 -11 -11 -12 -8 -10 -8 0 -4 -1 LAND (KM) 845 747 682 626 450 131 66 69 156 200 237 279 102 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.2 18.0 19.1 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.3 24.9 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.2 56.8 58.4 60.0 61.6 64.5 67.2 69.7 71.9 73.9 75.8 77.6 79.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 11 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 32 53 45 41 46 65 91 39 39 63 70 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED