* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 53 57 62 65 69 74 75 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 47 53 57 62 65 69 74 75 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 44 48 53 58 64 67 71 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 10 13 15 13 11 9 10 11 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 192 218 244 247 261 279 288 304 280 269 263 254 257 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 150 151 152 152 152 151 151 151 151 152 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 55 58 61 65 66 66 67 69 73 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 13 15 16 19 20 22 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -41 -42 -39 -33 -10 12 24 31 20 24 18 28 200 MB DIV 14 8 6 11 11 5 12 23 31 16 52 38 88 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 1 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 910 929 949 982 1016 1137 1256 1369 1499 1604 1712 1779 1831 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.2 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 167.7 167.9 168.0 168.3 168.5 169.4 170.5 171.7 173.1 174.3 175.5 176.4 177.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 51 53 56 63 58 48 45 39 35 39 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 19. 23. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 23. 27. 32. 35. 39. 44. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##