* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 08/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 58 68 77 83 92 102 103 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 50 58 68 77 83 92 102 103 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 60 73 87 100 108 109 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 5 4 9 8 13 6 2 4 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 334 327 341 356 292 303 308 346 305 279 150 86 63 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 161 161 162 162 158 155 155 154 151 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 74 74 73 70 69 67 63 58 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 14 16 19 23 27 32 38 38 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -5 -13 -15 -12 -10 -4 16 43 47 75 87 96 200 MB DIV 63 47 46 77 78 48 49 43 65 70 78 94 59 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1111 1157 1206 1257 1322 1378 1481 1599 1730 1898 2066 2283 2066 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.5 111.9 113.2 114.5 117.1 119.5 122.0 124.5 127.1 129.8 132.8 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 42 45 59 56 22 26 37 26 22 22 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 10. 15. 21. 26. 35. 42. 41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 25. 33. 43. 52. 58. 67. 77. 78. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 08/26/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 08/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##