* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 43 43 43 42 42 44 47 53 55 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 43 43 43 42 42 44 47 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 43 44 44 44 43 44 45 48 54 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 17 20 23 20 28 26 22 21 14 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -2 0 -5 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 279 284 273 278 292 293 297 281 296 299 326 282 292 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.4 30.0 30.6 30.5 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 144 146 147 148 153 159 170 171 171 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 142 142 143 142 142 146 149 156 164 159 150 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 51 53 53 54 55 57 62 63 67 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 7 6 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -12 -18 -25 -34 -37 -41 -54 -91 -91 -99 -70 -81 200 MB DIV 6 29 31 12 -4 8 11 4 11 8 12 27 6 700-850 TADV -8 -12 -15 -11 -11 -15 -14 -12 -15 -16 -5 0 -2 LAND (KM) 752 700 633 464 295 30 91 111 207 247 299 150 4 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.7 19.8 20.8 22.1 23.3 24.7 25.7 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.8 58.3 59.9 61.5 63.0 65.8 68.5 71.1 73.6 75.6 77.2 78.7 80.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 15 15 14 14 14 12 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 53 43 39 45 41 72 60 58 68 68 64 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 4. 7. 13. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED