* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 38 44 50 53 58 60 65 69 75 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 38 44 50 53 58 60 65 69 75 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 44 47 52 58 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 13 15 16 15 14 10 10 10 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 -5 1 1 -2 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 233 235 253 259 266 276 285 288 268 274 265 273 247 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 151 151 151 152 152 151 151 151 152 153 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 57 59 62 63 61 65 66 70 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 16 19 19 20 21 25 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -41 -39 -32 -22 0 17 29 24 24 17 20 14 200 MB DIV 19 18 7 5 12 17 14 20 16 20 9 44 51 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 2 3 5 5 6 LAND (KM) 877 898 920 960 1001 1101 1206 1332 1460 1571 1638 1729 1816 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.5 18.2 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 167.6 167.8 167.9 168.2 168.5 169.3 170.4 171.7 173.0 174.2 175.1 176.2 177.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 7 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 48 49 50 55 52 55 58 45 39 47 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 10. 13. 13. 15. 18. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 20. 23. 28. 30. 35. 39. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##