* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 47 43 38 32 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 47 43 38 32 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 45 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 13 13 20 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -1 6 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 279 260 195 173 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 24.6 21.3 17.3 12.6 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 114 81 69 69 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 48 56 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 13 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 7 -5 0 68 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 37 40 40 83 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 36 31 25 54 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2129 2422 2196 1794 1400 588 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 36.7 38.9 42.1 45.2 52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 176.3 178.3 180.3 182.7 185.0 189.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 32 36 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 24 CX,CY: -14/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -4. -7. -14. -17. -20. -22. -22. -21. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 3. -3. -12. -22. -29. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -8. -8. -5. 1. 9. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -7. -12. -18. -21. -26. -33. -38. -40. -39. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##