* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 61 66 68 75 78 85 86 87 88 87 81 V (KT) LAND 50 55 61 66 68 75 78 85 86 87 88 87 81 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 61 66 70 78 83 87 88 88 87 84 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 10 10 9 9 12 13 9 8 10 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -4 -6 -5 -6 -1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 142 120 95 112 116 99 98 94 122 153 212 202 211 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 150 147 145 144 142 139 138 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 63 64 67 70 68 64 61 58 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 17 16 17 17 20 21 22 24 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 67 69 68 63 54 55 55 59 61 57 55 60 62 200 MB DIV 67 61 62 67 47 47 37 43 20 6 -21 35 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 3 2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 2306 2226 2147 2032 1917 1693 1504 1305 1097 900 697 505 318 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.4 136.2 137.2 138.2 140.0 141.6 143.3 145.1 146.8 148.6 150.3 152.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 22 21 16 12 14 23 24 27 32 31 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 10. 10. 12. 15. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 18. 25. 28. 35. 36. 37. 38. 37. 31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##