* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962015 08/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 54 65 77 89 95 102 107 111 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 54 65 77 89 95 102 107 111 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 35 43 55 71 91 109 121 124 121 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 8 10 11 13 8 6 6 8 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -4 -6 -5 -4 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 333 343 356 342 323 341 1 21 357 327 317 325 326 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 162 163 162 159 157 158 158 157 153 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 71 72 71 71 72 72 69 66 65 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 13 15 18 23 27 31 35 39 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -11 -17 -12 -12 -5 1 7 30 37 47 50 47 200 MB DIV 43 29 33 48 38 51 51 59 65 87 108 113 81 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1260 1332 1418 1452 1500 1629 1775 1898 2010 2114 2228 2330 2330 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 14 13 12 11 8 8 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 52 44 31 35 39 33 31 30 31 22 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 22. 27. 35. 40. 44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 29. 40. 52. 64. 70. 77. 82. 86. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 08/26/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962015 INVEST 08/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##