* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 43 44 45 44 45 46 47 53 58 62 V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 43 44 45 44 45 46 47 53 58 42 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 44 45 45 44 45 47 53 61 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 20 24 20 27 24 23 16 17 12 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 1 -3 -2 -3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 284 264 277 289 297 289 288 278 284 286 242 240 214 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.7 30.3 30.6 30.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 144 146 147 148 150 154 164 172 171 170 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 142 144 145 143 143 145 153 162 163 153 144 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 52 51 54 53 56 59 62 66 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 11 10 9 9 9 10 12 15 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -16 -24 -37 -34 -34 -42 -64 -81 -79 -44 -58 -33 200 MB DIV 24 26 18 -5 7 24 7 13 17 32 38 25 47 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -9 -8 -10 -11 -9 -13 -12 -7 -1 -4 5 LAND (KM) 691 653 484 309 137 88 66 167 205 242 200 38 -65 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.2 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.6 23.8 25.0 26.0 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 58.2 59.8 61.3 62.8 64.4 67.2 69.9 72.4 74.6 76.6 78.4 79.8 80.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 52 45 39 45 21 63 89 51 74 65 36 52 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. -6. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 13. 18. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED