* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 50 57 61 64 65 65 67 72 72 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 50 57 61 64 65 65 67 72 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 51 54 56 58 60 64 70 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 11 13 10 11 8 8 7 12 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 237 244 246 260 273 275 280 275 304 276 276 236 250 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 151 151 151 152 152 151 150 151 152 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 58 59 62 60 61 64 68 68 67 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 13 14 15 16 16 16 15 16 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -41 -33 -18 -3 12 17 17 17 10 3 14 1 200 MB DIV 20 11 9 9 7 19 18 7 8 22 21 58 28 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 1 1 4 5 LAND (KM) 906 930 955 994 1032 1117 1235 1355 1485 1577 1629 1724 1830 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 167.6 167.8 167.9 168.2 168.5 169.3 170.5 171.8 173.3 174.4 175.1 176.2 177.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 5 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 49 49 50 52 54 58 57 57 56 42 40 49 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. 32. 37. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##