* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 45 41 36 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 45 41 36 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 46 41 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 16 22 34 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 6 5 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 238 173 163 178 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 20.2 16.7 12.4 11.0 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 70 69 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 44 48 56 66 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 12 12 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 6 48 126 69 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 37 47 74 91 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 22 7 23 73 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2482 2088 1719 1325 937 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.6 39.4 42.2 45.4 48.6 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.2 181.5 183.8 186.2 188.5 193.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 33 35 36 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 24 CX,CY: -14/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -23. -26. -29. -29. -28. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 2. -8. -21. -35. -45. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 21. 22. 21. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. 1. 7. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -9. -14. -20. -27. -37. -49. -59. -66. -70. -70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/26/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##